The dynamical relationship between oil price shocks and selected macroeconomic variables in Turkey

In many empirical studies, the dynamic relationship among energy sector variables (such as, oil, electricity, gasoline, coal, renewable energy, etc.) and economic variables (such as; financial markets, real economy and the overall economy) are studied. Oil price changes may affect the economic variables more of oil importer countries then oil exporter countries especially emerging markets. In addition to this, oil price changes and shocks may be an important device to explain stock market index return. In this paper, Istanbul stock exchange market index (ISE-100), interest rates, exchange rates and oil price are analyzed by using a vector autoregressive (VAR) approach for Turkey. The results suggest that there is a dynamic relationship among oil price shocks, Istanbul stock market index, exchange rate and interest rate.