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    Critical evaluation of wind speed frequency distribution functions
    (Amer Inst Physics, 2010) Çelik, Ali Naci; Makkawi, A.; Muneer, T.
    Over the past few years a number of new mathematical functions have been proposed for wind speed probability density distributions. The most commonly used function that has been cited in literature has been the two-parameter Weibull function. However, in recent years studies have shown that the two-parameter Weibull function might be inadequate in modeling the wind speed probability density distributions or independent of whether the distribution is of unimodal or bimodal nature. For the unimodal distributions, the inadequacy may be due to the intricate behavior of the distribution, which prevents it to be satisfyingly modeled by a two-parameter model. For the bimodal behavior, the two-parameter Weibull function, which produces only a unimodal distribution, is simply inadequate to model it appropriately. Therefore, in recent years, alternative functions have been suggested for both unimodal and bimodal distributions, seeking more involved functions to better model these distributions. This article involves the modeling of observed wind speed probability density distributions using the main body of models found in the literature, namely, Rayleigh, Lognormal, two-parameter Weibull, three-parameter Weibull, and bimodal Weibull probability distribution functions. One of the important steps in the evaluation of different functions is the interpretation of the statistical parameters, namely, slope, R(2), mean bias error, and root mean squared error, as are presently used in this article. A novel statistical tool is developed in the present article using these four statistical parameters. The novel tool can be used to evaluate the relative performance of models when more than one model is involved or to determine the overall accuracy of a particular model for a specific site. The calculations are made based on the long term wind speed data collected at 4-s interval at the experimental site at Edinburgh Napier University. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3294127]
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    Sustainable transport solution for a medium-sized town in Turkey-A case study
    (Elsevier Science Bv, 2011) Muneer, T.; Çelik, Ali Naci; Çalışkan, N.
    The United Nations projects that 60% of the world's population will be living in urban areas by 2030. Cities account for 2% of the world's area but 75% of the world's energy consumption. For over a century, the automobile has offered affordable freedom of movement within urban areas. However, with the current vehicle population exceeding 850 million, almost all of which are powered by internal combustion engines this situation is becoming unsustainable. In this article a critical review of the present energy budget of Turkey and its over dependence on imported fuel oil to support the transport sector is carried out. By way of having a closer examination of the energy needs for the private vehicle fleet, experimental work was undertaken for one town in western Turkey-Bolu. The latter town represents a typical municipality in Turkey with the possibility of replication of the present work to other similar conurbations. The work entailed determination of the driving cycle. A software program that has been expressly developed for this type of exercise was then used to ascertain the savings in fossil fuel that may be achieved via use of solar PV-electric vehicles. It has been presently argued that the use of electricity-propelled, two-and four-wheelers offers a sustainable solution. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.